1. An overview of the development of mechanical drive parts industry
（1）Development of overseas mechanical drive parts market
The mechanical transmission parts industry is undertaking the important task of providing all kinds of transmission parts for the main engine industry, and is a very important basic industry. Mechanical transmission parts industry has a long history，it is a traditional manufacturing industry, and it has a history of hundreds of years ago. Traditionally, the global market for mechanical drive parts is mainly concentrated in countries and regions such as Europe, the United States and Japan, in which Europe, the United States and Japan are the first areas to be engaged in the production of mechanical transmission parts. In the past more than 20 years, in order to reduce the cost, the enterprises in the developed countries have migrated the production line to the low cost developing countries to produce or seek the OEM production. At present, overseas developed countries rarely produce low-end mechanical transmission parts and components, mainly engaged in the manufacture of high-precision gears and other high-end transmission products. On the whole, the world's most important production base of mechanical transmission parts is China, and the mechanical drive parts products such as pulley, cone, sprocket and gear are exported to the overseas market. In view of this, from the export situation of China's mechanical transmission parts, we can have a glimpse of the demand distribution and development of overseas markets. In 2016, the main export market of mechanical transmission parts in China is the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea and other countries and regions, they accounted for 20.04%, 13.02%, 7.17%, 6.25% and 4.54% of the total export relatively, and the other areas accounted for 48.97%. The export volume of China's mechanical transmission parts continued to grow from 354 thousand and 100 tons in 2011 to 465 thousand and 500 tons in 2014. In 2015, in view of the down downturn of the international economic operation, the structural adjustment of the domestic equipment manufacturing industry and the limited growth trend of the investment in the machinery industry, the machinery driving parts manufacturing enterprises, which are equipped with the mainframe equipment, are generally faced with the plaguing of the shortage of product orders, and the export volume is declining now. In 2016, although the recovery of the international economic operation continued to be weak, the support of the auto industry, electric power industry, rail transport, environmental equipment and other mainframe industries, as well as the active factors of the national economic operation policy, were supported by the major development of the automobile industry, the electric power industry, the rail transport and the environmental equipment, the export volume of mechanical transmission parts reached 437 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 1.30% over the same period last year. In terms of export volume, the export volume of China's mechanical transmission parts increased from US $1 billion 443 million to US $2 billion 72 million in 2011-2014 years. In 2015 and 2016, due to the slowdown in international economic growth, the downturn in major overseas market demand and the fluctuation of the exchange rate, the export volume declined slightly, but still reached $1 billion 918 million and $1 billion 907 million.
（2）General situation of the market development of mechanical transmission parts in China
The production of mechanical transmission parts in China started late. Before 1980s, there was no manufacturer specializing in the production of mechanical transmission parts, which was mainly machined by the main engine factory. In the late 70s of last century, in view of the high cost of production in Europe, some European dealers came to China to study in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. It is believed that the local labor force not only has low cost, but also has high manual skills and sufficient raw materials, so it begins to purchase mechanical transmission parts from China. In the early 80s, a number of factories for producing mechanical transmission parts appeared in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and later extended to the northern regions. In the late 80 dynasties of twentieth Century, the production of mechanical transmission parts in China was gradually marketization. Since the reform and opening up, after more than 30 years of development and the joint efforts of the whole industry, China's mechanical drive parts manufacturing industry has experienced several stages of development, such as the introduction of digestion, independent development and product upgrading, and the technical level of the industry has been improved qualitatively. The product situation has been upgraded from soft tooth to hard tooth surface, and the manufacturer has developed to several hundred at present. The production scale of the industry has developed from billions of yuan to about hundreds of billions of yuan. The annual production scale of the industry has expanded from several billion yuan to the current 100 billion yuan, and the product line has developed from the original ten to the thousands today. The overall level of most of the products has reached the advanced level of the foreign products of the same kind. Many of the products that used to rely on imported products have gradually ended the history of import, and are replaced by domestic products. At the same time, as many of our country's complete sets and single machine equipment are gradually coming out of the country, many of our mechanical transmission parts are also exported to all parts of the world as well as by the mainframe. This indicates that China's mechanical transmission parts industry has a competitive strength to compete in the international market. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous expansion of foreign trade, the output of mechanical transmission parts in China has increased from 19 million 50 thousand tons in 2011 to 34 million 620 thousand tons in 2016. The cumulative increase was 81.73%, and the annual average growth rate was 16.35%. The market size of China's mechanical drive parts industry increased from 314 billion 400 million yuan in 2011 to 605 billion 900 million yuan in 2016, up 92.72%, and an annual average growth of 18.54%.
2、Market demand analysis of mechanical transmission parts
（1）Analysis of overseas market demand
As Europe, the Middle East, Australia and other countries and regions basically do not produce or produce only a small amount of mechanical transmission parts, and China is the world's most important producer of mechanical transmission parts, the overseas market has strong rigidity and stickiness to the demand of Chinese mechanical transmission parts products. Before 2015, overseas market demand for mechanical transmission parts and components produced in China continued to grow. In the past 2015-2016 years, due to the slowdown in global economic growth and the slowdown in Global trade growth, the demand for China's mechanical drive parts products has fluctuated. Looking around the world, after the international financial crisis in 2008, in order to find a new way to promote economic growth, the major manufacturing countries of overseas began to re - value the manufacturing industry, for example, the national strategic plan of the advanced manufacturing industry by US, the 4.0 strategy of German industry, and the 2050 strategy of British industry and so on. One of the commonalities of these strategies / plans is that the manufacturing industry in various countries is developing towards intelligence and automation. The more highly automatic production lines, the higher the probability of using mechanical transmission parts, the demand for the design and use of transmission products will also continue to grow. As investment, manufacturing and trade continue to recover, the developing countries that export commodities will benefit from the rebound in commodity prices. The global economic growth in 2017 was 3%, significantly better than expected, and it is expected to increase to 3.1% in 2018. In the 2019-2020 year, the global economy is expected to grow by 3% and 2.9% respectively.
2012-2020 global economic growth and forecast
In addition, the major developed countries represented by the United States and Germany are overseas, pay more attention to the development of their own equipment manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing has become the main battlefield of global manufacturing value reconstruction, competition pattern change and innovation driven, the next 10 years will become the main driving force for economic development. The development of the equipment manufacturing industry in the major developed countries of the world will effectively promote the demand for the quantity and quality of the mainframe components (such as mechanical transmission parts) in various countries. The emerging developing countries, represented by China, are in the period of industrialization, marketization and urbanization, and also in the period of consumption expansion and structural upgrading. In the coming period, the equipment manufacturing industry will usher in a rare opportunity for development, and also provide huge market space for the development of mechanical transmission parts industry. Thus, in the next few years, the market prospect of the global mechanical transmission parts is more optimistic.
（2）Analysis of domestic market demand
The production of mechanical transmission parts and components is obviously promoted by terminal demand. In recent years, with the development of China's economy, oil, ship, automobile, air conditioning and other industries have developed rapidly, which has greatly promoted the growth of the market demand for mechanical transmission parts products in China. For example, in the field of engineering machinery, transmission parts as one of the most important core component parts, with the rapid upgrading of China's engineering machinery, the demand for transmission parts has a broad prospect. At the same time, the export of China's loaders, forklift trucks, bulldozers, levelers, roller compactors, and other engineering machinery products are increasing rapidly, which will vigorously develop the development of the transmission and spare parts industry supporting the main engine. Therefore, in the next few years, with the rapid and stable development of China's economy and the continuous development of the downstream application industry, the demand for mechanical transmission parts is becoming more and more important in the domestic market. The market scale of mechanical transmission parts industry will maintain a steady growth, thus driving the growth of the supply of mechanical transmission parts in China. It is estimated that the output of mechanical transmission parts will reach 59 million 290 thousand tons by 2022.
2017-2022 year forecast trend of China's mechanical transmission parts output (10000 tons)
In 2017, the market size of China's mechanical drive parts industry will reach 662 billion 500 million yuan; by 2022, the market size of China's mechanical drive parts industry is expected to exceed 10000 billion yuan.
Market trend forecast of China's mechanical transmission parts industry in 2017-2022 years (100 million yuan)
